AMONG LINGERING WISPS OF COLD-WAR AIRS                                                                             (…as Frosty-the-Snowman Putin and Sam-the-Candyman Obama do a bit of sparring…)

Let’s reverse an old adage here by saying: Diplomacy…is the art of warfare by more genteel and less bloody means. So, here we are, with both America and Russia doing just that, among lingering wisps of cold-war airs, as Frosty-the-Snowman Putin and Sam-the-Candyman Obama do a bit of sparring. Quelles sottises!

Ever since the collapse of the old Soviet Empire, both the EU and the US relations with Russia have been, more or less, on an arms-length basis. In some respects that’s been unavoidable because, through all the chaos that followed that collapse, Russia’s super-power status drastically faded away, as most of its former “commisars” were busy making themselves into instant billionaires by grabbing every state asset that wasn’t nailed down… for themselves. Thus Russia found itself left out in the cold by both the EU and the US in the matrix of international affairs (it’s hard to do business with kleptocrats, as we’ve found out in dealings with China).

But the world turns, as they say, especially in the geo-political world, and everyone’s relative position in it…turn about with it.

Russia eventually settled down from its inner turmoil, and began to re-establish some semblance of its former power and influence, this time with its natural resources of oil and natural gas as the means to do so. Soon most of Central and Western Europe became dependent upon it for much of their energy needs, giving it “leverage” with them. Even America itself became a major buyer and importer of its oil and gas thus somewhat “warming” their mutual relations…until now..

But old habits and ways of doing things die hard. For America this has meant the difficult process of dropping its cold-war perspectives about Russia. For Russia, however, to achieve its renewed geo-political position in the world, it has had the more difficult task of revamping the style and manner of its central authority’s operation. Ironically, it seems to have chosen to revert back to the former Czarist autocratic formula for that purpose, ending up with Putin as Vladimir Ist of a new form of “elected” dynastic rule…something more or less acceptable to the Russian people as being better than rule by oligarchic manipulated chaos. Even so, still feeling vulnerable, it has chosen to take on a contrarian defensive posture in the face of surrounding events…a posture which has impeded the demise of EU and US cold-war perspectives about it.

Unfortunately neither the EU nor the US appear to have understood these factors as Russia’s motivations for the conduct of its foreign policy, while, with the rise of Islamist Jihadist attacks and ongoing threats against them, EU and US preoccupation on ways and means to combat these, view such Russian maneuverings as not only uncooperative, but even hostile against their efforts to combat terrorism. Which is unfortunate because, if both the EU and the US demonstrated a much less suspicious and more inclusive posture towards it, Russia could become a very effective part of a triumvirate of power and influence as a stabilizing force in the world of geopolitics, especially with regard to the Middle East.

It all boils down to a very simple question: Would we be better off if we invited the Russian Bear to come into the house, to share whatever we have; or, is it better to leave it growling out in the cold, while it tries to break in the door? The answer depends on whether we prefer to cuddle up with an overly large Teddy Bear…or to continuously have to face down and deal with a very grumpy Grizzly.

CENTURION