IRAN’S WAVING A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD
(….which could slice….right back at it)

Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz could do it more harm than good. It’s waving a double-edged sword which could….slice right back at it.

Should it go ahead and carry out its threat, there’s nothing to prevent the US from declaring a state of belligerency; and then, from positions out in the Arabian Sea with the superiority of its naval resources, simply blockade the entrance to the Persian Gulf entirely. In purely naval terms Iran would have no means to do much of anything about that. And if such a blockade only allowed non-Iranian bound shipping in and out passage into the Gulf, Iran would have no means of shipping its oil….anywhere.

It’s hard to imagine that the Ayatollah Regime is not aware of that potential, or, so insanely bent on a direct confrontation with the US in that manner. From any naval perspective it is outclassed. And if American naval forces ignored its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, and went ahead and massively paraded right through it (with all the firepower of its weaponry at the ready and pointed towards the Iranian side of the Strait, what could it do? If it were dumb enough to fire first at any of those vessels, how long would it be before every one of its military shore facilities there would be just smoldering rubble? Not very long….maybe in a few blinks or two. Iran would have made the classic error of  bringing a knife to a gun fight.

The Ayatollah regime’s saber rattling is thus an indication of its desperation over the impacts the sanctions imposed upon it are having on its economic system. Without those oil revenues, its nuclear ambitions are being stalled, if not derailed. Worse yet, that kind of economic instability could once more bring protestors out in the streets….this time….for good. So Hormuz, and, the death sentence it just imposed on another American-born hostage, are just part and parcel of its negotiating ways. It’s another bargaining chip while it tries to weasel itself out of a tight spot.

The only wild cards or jokers in this insane poker game of chicken….are China…. and to a lesser degree, India, Japan, and South Korea. Since these are the major buyers and consumers of Iranian oil, any disruption of that supply to them, by anyone, would not be considered a “friendly” move. Still, there could be ways and means to assuage any supply anxieties they might have, by offering them some of our own supplies to replace any Iranian ones being blocked. If this seems a wild idea, keep in mind that, as of the end of 2011 US domestic oil production is such that we are now a net exporter of petroleum products again. Between our North Slope, the Bakken field in North Dakota, the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, plus the new extraction technologies being applied to many of our supposedly “depleted” wells in California, Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma, among others, the US is rapidly developing as a major oil producer and exporter again.

For Iran, such maneuvers can only ultimately end as a no-win situation. Furthermore, it also has another little known but extremely vulnerable element with its oil production, which is, the bulk of its oil production capabilities depends upon its Caspian Sea resources. And to bring its Caspian Sea oil up over the Taurus Mountains to then flow down to its Persian gulf facilities it is dependent upon a 52 inch oil pipeline. Constructed during the Shah’s regime, that pipeline, in turn, depends on three or four pumping facilities to lift the oil up and over the crest line of those mountains. If anything were to happen to any one or several of those pumping facilities, Iran’s total oil production would almost stop. Where would that leave it then?  So that pipeline is the equivalent of a jugular artery, and without it….everything comes to a screeching halt. It’s an important factor to consider, because the US does have the capabilities to slit that jugular oil artery of theirs, at any time, without advanced warning….and without the need for putting a single boot on Iranian soil. It’s called –Drone Technology-.

Lastly, of course, there is the possibility of making an off-beat Machiavellian deal with those pesky Somali pirate gangs. In exchange for leaving Western shipping alone, we might offer to provide them with timely intel about tankers’ schedules carrying Iranian oil out of the Gulf, and also provide them with “blind eye” safe-passage to go hijack these high value targets, and then, making direct sales of that hijcked oil to our Chinese, Indian, and other Asian friends, at a discounted price….as a more “socially acceptable” way to ply their trade! While Iran would lose its oil revenues, its Chinese, Indian, and other customers would still get their supplies, at a discount, and the Somalis would make a sufficiently steady bundle without having to engage in all the hassle and complicated transactional dealings they usually have to face with one of their lower-value piratical operations. Meanwhile, we can sit on the sidelines, suck on a few margaritas, and smile…..like the smiling dogs we are!

That would be a win-win all around, except for the Ayatollahs….of course.

Stay tuned….

CENTURION