SOUNDING MUCH LIKE THE JAWBONING OF ASSES…
(…and that ain’t the way Sampson did it)

The Russia-Ukraine crisis rumbles on…and off…and on…and off. Another dismal example of what happens when – talk- is the only response to aggression. The problem with this particular crisis is that everyone involved with it is trying to play chicken…to see who will blink…first; but, what happens if nobody does? What then?

That’s a good question, because it’s a very dangerous game they’re all playing, where even the smallest miscalculation could lead to a live-fire military confrontation, and, no matter how minor and low level that might be, it’s the kind of thing that can rapidly escalate out of control into a major one. Given the mutual atomic arsenal levels they all have…that’s not a very comforting prospect.

So far, Putin (aka Czar Vladimir Ist) seems to be the only one making any profit from the situation. His wily proxy manipulations of it have outmaneuvered everyone else in this contest, leaving the US, the EU, and NATO, flatfooted, and just spouting a lot of irate diplomatic blather…sounding much like the jawboning of asses…and that ain’t the way Sampson did it. So what’s causing Russia to suddenly launch into a rampaging-grizzly mode again? What’s really behind it all? Aside from Putin’s opportunistic bent (calculated, that is) whenever a situation might be worked to advantage, what are the broader factors driving this aggressive mode?

Two appear to be the key ones here. The first is the accumulation of a deep load of resentment against the West since the collapse of the Soviet rule. A load of resentment that probably even goes as far back as Czar Peter the Great’s times. Giant that he was personally and as strong a ruler that he proved to be…dragging Russia kicking and screaming from its medieval pit into the “enlightenment” world of that time…the rest of Europe still looked upon him as a parvenu uppity bumpkin, whose country was too far in Europe’s out back to be worthy of membership in polite European society. A condescending and disdainful attitude which lingered on into the Great Catherine’s time as well, despite the fact that both of them were high-profile personalities of that Enlightenment Era.

Unfortunately, that condescending disdain towards Russia has continued all the way from the Napoleonic period right into our modern times of today. Granted, the Soviet interlude didn’t help much to change such views of it, but even after the dust had settled from its collapse, Western attitudes towards it remained mistrustful of it at worst…and at-arm’s-length at best. Is it any wonder then that Russian perspectives about the West border on the paranoid? Napoleon, Western expeditionary forces in support of White Russian resistance against its Marxist revolution, Hitler, and now NATO’s eastward expansions, all, have simply reinforced such perspectives.

The second factor is…NATO. The closer its presence comes to Russia’s western borders, the more reactive it becomes because it sees that as an existential threat (much like Pakistan’s perspectives are towards India). As far as Moscow is concerned its turf of influence still ranges from the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, through Poland, Belarus, and the Ukraine, to the Black Sea. It was a Czarist view well before the Soviets ever came along, so, while these may now all be “independent” sovereignties, as far as Czar Vladimir is concerned, any inclinations by these to forge closer ties with the EU and NATO are to be resisted and fought in any way possible.

All of which raises a number of very large and interesting questions here: Why is NATO still active? The original reason for its existence has long been gone. Against whom is it now defending Europe? Where is the statesmanship that could resolve these things vis a vis Russia? Sadly, the only answer to such questions seems to be…a deafening silence… even when they are asked.

Well, let us take a –what if – approach at what could be a truly grand design for the entirety of Europe: What if…the EU included Russia, as part of a giga-economic region…from Gibraltar to the Urals…and from the Baltic to the Mediterranean…as a vast high capacity collective in terms of human and natural resources? How powerful of an economic boom might that produce? And what if…concurrently with that…NATO were replaced by a EUTO, which also included Russia, how militarily powerful would that be as a stabilizing influence for that part of the world? Lastly, of course, how would such a –what if – benefit America?

Who knows…but…the present economic situation in Europe being what it is, these are questions that are well worth the asking.

CENTURION