RESOLVING THE SYRIAN-ISIL CONUNDRUM…
( will require a bi-polar…not a mono-polar approach to succeed.)
President Obama’s international coalition to sustain an intensive air-strike campaign against ISIL in Iraq, and now Syria, amounts to a stop-gap measure, and does not do more than just marginally degrade ISIL’s capabilities to continue raising hell in the region.
One of the reasons this situation exists today is because we, and the rest of the international community, sat on our buns for the past three years, doing very little to halt the Syrian civil war. As a result the Free Syrian opposition has been unable to coalesce into a viable alternative to the thuggish Assad regime because it has not had any kind of “safe haven” within Syria to do so. That regime’s superiority with air and other firepower has kept it on the run, so to speak, while killing hundreds of thousands of Syrians in the process, driving millions more into exile as refugees, leaving most of the country in ruins, thus creating the chaos that became an incubating petri-dish there for extremist viruses such as ISIL.
Belatedly, there seems to be some glimmer of comprehension that this is the crux of what created the situation that we and the international community now have to face, because of that earlier hesitancy and inaction. Even so, President Erdogan of Turkey is the only head of state who is openly and publicly saying so, and calling for what he labels a “buffer zone” on the ground to correct that failure.
In short, if we’re really serious about resolving the Syrian/ISIL conundrum…it will require a bi-polar…not a mono-polar approach to succeed. That is, we need to apply a strategy that will contain both ISIL and the Assad regime at the same time, to include the following measures:
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Immediately impose a no-fly/no-fire line, beginning at the Mediterranean, just west of Aleppo, and running all the way to the Syrian-Iraq border, thereby making everything east of that to the Turkish border off limits to either Assad regime or ISIL forces of any kind. The most effective enforcement for such a line will probably require deployment of significant armed drone assets, combined with some air assets, to maintain it on a 24/7 basis, at least for a couple of years.
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Behind that cover, the Free Syrian opposition would then have that missing safe haven, where it could begin re-organizing and re-structuring itself into a proper secular governing entity to help it gather back all Syrians currently in exile as refugees into a viable alternative to either the Assad regime or ISIL. More importantly, that would provide it with the necessary manpower to establish a Syrian “boots-on-the-ground” force able to face up to both.
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Behind such a cover, and with such a secured part of the Syrian territory, international NGOs, along with military advisory and training support, could then help that Free Syrian opposition rebuild infrastructures, essential services, and develop itself into a strong, self-sustaining, and civil society (since that territory would also include those oil field and refining facilities now in the hands of ISIL, besides denying ISIL black market revenues, these would then help legitimately finance the Free Syrians instead).
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As the Free Syrian opposition evolved both in strength and capability, individual members of the international community could further enhance its position by withdrawing their diplomatic recognition of the Assad regime, shifting it to the Free Syrians instead. Over time, even their diplomatic missions could relocate, making Aleppo the capital of a new Syria, leaving Damascus and the Assads to wither on the vine. At some point, after enough individual members had done so, even the UN could then recognize Free Syria as the new and legitimate Syrian entity to replace it.
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Concurrent with all that, the international community should declare ISIL and all of its affiliates an international criminal organization, not just a so-called “Islamist extremist” one, making membership in it a criminal association, subject to criminal prosecution, and awarding bounties for the apprehension of either rank and file or high level leaders of it. Meanwhile, on the ground in Syria and Iraq, any black flagged vehicle or facility would be subject to continuing attack, whether by air or other means. In effect, declaring an “open season” against any and all ISIL elements wherever found.
Anything less than such measures won’t accomplish the peace and stability for the region that everyone claims to be the ultimate goal.
CENTURION