SCANNING FORWARD
(…for possible unintended consequences from imposing sanctions on Russia)
Normally I try not to “chase’ the news with the rest of the thundering herd of commentators, analysts, and pundits of one kind or another, preferring instead to maintain and follow somewhat contrarian perspectives and viewpoints. Sometimes, however, certain events have such a potential for the widespread negative impacts of a tsunami wave rippling outwards in all directions, one is forced to do so; and, this situation between the Ukraine and Russia is one of those events.
In simple terms, the sudden explosion of a popular revolt by the Ukrainian people against a massively corrupt and incompetent government caught both the Western world and Russia with their pants down, so to speak, because these events came hard on the heels of the international euphoria still lingering from the success of the Olympic games in Sochi, Russia. Thus the way Ukraine’s President Yanokovich abandoned his office, fleeing like a thief in the night to escape his people’s rage against the slaughters made by his security forces at Madan, created such an unstable power-vacuum in the Ukraine, Russia’s Putin could not idly stand by and risk losing his Crimean bases agreements with it. He therefore made a knee-jerk, almost panicked, reaction to that situation.
Unfortunately, neither Western Europe nor the US appears to have understood that reaction, seeing it only as some sort of typical Russian geo-political power-play. Their extreme rhetoric about it, combined with loud saber rattling about imposing heavy sanctions against Russia, have simply aggravated the situation, and further widened the long-standing East-West divide.
Wrong-headed as Putin’s tactics may be, those of the Western powers are no better in this situation. We need to scan forward…for the possible unintended consequences resulting from imposing sanctions against Russia.
For one thing, such sanctions will further inflame Russians’ deep-rooted and intense sense of nationalism, thereby enhancing Putin’s hold on political power. For another, sanctions in this case are more than likely to be a double-edged sword because of Russia’s position as a key supplier of energy resources to the EU, and also, as a significant supplier to the US’s New England’s needs. Lastly, the proposed sanctions against Russia may have only a nominal effect because it has a “back door” channel to offset them. That is…China. Given China’s insatiable appetite and need for energy and other natural resources, which Russia has in abundance to supply to it, any trading losses with the West from such sanctions, could be more than made up from bi-lateral trade with China (and such sanctions are not likely to be applied to China if it ignores them).
Thus, what might result from such sanctions would have Russia pivot even more eastwards and away from the West. Effectively it would turn its back on Europe, to progressively become more integrated with China and the Far East. And such a “rapprochement” between Russia and China would work hard against US objectives in the Pacific region.
Some ten years ago plans were made to construct a Trans-Siberian pipeline to deliver Russia’s oil and gas resources from its massive Urals fields to Vladivostok, to supply Korea and Japan, along with a branching pipeline to China’s western Sinkiang region, to supply China. Those developments were supposed to be online by now, though there has been little or no news about what progress has been made to make it a reality. Even if that has not been accomplished, is there any doubt that both Russia and China have the financial means and technological capacities to implement such a project on a crash schedule basis? Nor should we overlook Russia’s other vast resources in coal, timber, and other mineral products, that China would happily take in as much as could be supplied, enhancing both countries’ economies in the process.
Another, even less desirable consequence, is the fact that both Russia and China have complimentary authoritarian governments derived from their former common Communist connections, and that much of their military structures and armaments still have much in common because of that today. China is still a –Communist- state as far as governance is concerned. It may have relaxed its economic formulas to a more “free market” model, but it is still a totalitarian structure. While Russia may have transitioned into a more so-called “democratic” form of governance and economic models, it is still autocratic in practice, thus would have little difficulty in finding a compatible affiliation with China.
In the context of such eventualities…Crimea and the Ukraine…are mere pimples on the world community’s derriere.
All of this can be summarized by this question: Are we prepared to permanently leave Russia out in the cold, forever growling like an irate grizzly at our door; or, are we ready to try taming it enough so we can risk letting it in…to truly be part of our world?
Until we can honestly answer that question we’re not likely to have any peace and tranquility any time soon.
CENTURION