THE RISING ANXIETIES OF A RED DRAGON
(haunted by ghosts of upheavals past)

The ongoing conflict between the Gadaffi regime and the Libyan people who want to get rid of him, as well as the continuing flood of popular protest and rebellion in the rest of the Middle East, by folks who also want to get rid of their own thug regimes, is causing a lot of heartburn among China’s commissars. And Western involvement in that turmoil, such as imposing a no-fly sanction on Gadaffi’s regime (not to mention probably covert “boots” on the ground to help apply it), is giving them even more MAALOX moments. It’s not just a matter of this situation screwing up their cosy contracts and financial deals with Gadaffi, reaching well into the billions; but, such intervention helps support these spreading floods of protest and rebellion which might, ultimately, reach right to their shores.

China’s commissars may have long put aside their Mao tunics for snazzy business suits and pockets well lined with –long green – but they’re still wearing red underwear. These events are making them extremely nervous about the possibility that their grip on the levers of political power (which allows them to collect all that- long green) might be forced to let go of them. It creates rising anxieties for a red dragon, haunted by ghosts of upheavals past.

China has come a long way in the past thirty years. Its economic – great leap forward- has made it not only the most populous nation in the world, but also, one of the most dominant economies in it. Or so it would appear….but beneath all the glitzy veneer of fast-paced modernization and booming economic enterprise, are several thousand years of submerged and not so dormant regional fault lines, always ready to burst out into conflict again. Thus, throughout its history, China’s stability and prosperity have always depended on having a strong centralized government ruling over it.

Dictatorship, of one kind or another, rather than democracy, has thus been its government of choice. Whether it be emperors, warlords, or commissars, the problem has always been the same….maintaining control over a vast array of ethnicities, religions, ideologies, etc., which are all inherently antagonistic to each other.

They also have long memories about the chaotic ravages in their history whenever such strong central control was not there, one of the longest being the five warring kingdoms era. In modern times the Maoist-Kuomintang struggles for power, later followed by the calamity of the –Cultural Revolution – which nearly destroyed it. So it looks upon a “Facebook” revolution as just more of the same, and even more dangerous, because the nature of its technology makes it very difficult to control.

But the thing about authoritarian and dictatorial government is that it cannot relax its grip on power, without risking losing control of power. Gripping too ruthlessly and too strongly, however, sooner or later creates discontent, which leads to protest, and ultimately to rebellion. Loosening that grip, and allowing superficial “freedoms” to be tolerated, simply creates a demand for more such….freedoms…. with that demand evolving into rebellion as well. It’s a never ending dilemma, for which there is never a perfect answer. Which is why these kinds of governments always seek to justify their tyrannies by equating freedom with chaos, and dictatorship with stability and prosperity.

In China’s case, while it has somewhat succeeded in applying an evolutionary approach towards freedom rather than dictatorship, the pace of that evolution, and the economic inequalities that have outpaced it have generated much social agitation and discontent. One of the causes of that, of course, has been the near monopoly its PLA (People’s Liberation Army) has on almost any kind of enterprise or industry, of any size, making it the main beneficiary of all that economic activity, over everyone else. One whose octopus-like tentacles make the old Sicilian Mafia seem like rank amateurs. It is involved in almost everything of value in China (including a very lucrative latter-day traffic in human body parts and organs, for the international transplant market demand for these).

So the PLA hierarchy is the wild card in whatever may happen in China’s near future. The Party commissars are feverishly doing their best to keep it tied to themselves. It remains to be seen if they can succeed with that effort. If not….then the red dragon’s worst nightmares could become reality.
And that would not be good for the rest of us.

CENTURION