A NUCLEAR IRAN
(….a trouble-making nuisance….or a real threat?)

War-hawks of all types are circling and screeching alarm calls all over the place, trying to stampede everyone into believing that the Ayatollahs of Iran are still intent on world domination, or at least their corner of it, so their reaching for nuclear weaponry is their means of trying for it.

Part of all that hysteria about Iran achieving nuclear weapon status seems to be because no one can figure out what this regime is all about. To all appearances it resembles the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party from Alice in Wonderland, with the Ayatollahs at one end of the table in the role of the Queen of Hearts (….off with their heads!), while President Ahmadenidijad at the other end of it plays the Mad hatter (…let’s wipe Israel off the map).

Then of course there’s the question of its oil, most of which flows eastward to India, China, Japan, and Korea, with the rest going to places like Greece and Italy, and other Mediterranean points of delivery.

And to all that there’s its behind the scenes activities financing and arming proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza. All of which leaves folks wondering if it’s just a trouble-making nuisance and neighborhood bully….or a real threat.

It’s not so much a question of it being a threat, as it is a latent subliminal drive to recapture in one form or another the general influence, if not actual hegemony, it once had in the region as the former ancient Persian Empire. And ever since a Macedonian hillbilly named Alexander beat the hell out of it, and the Roman and Byzantine empires that followed contained it, it has tried every means available throughout those succeeding eras, to regain that position. But, subsequent history thwarted such aspirations over and over again. First, with the rise of Islam, to find itself in the outfield of the Shia-Sunni divide (a Martin and Coy type feud which seems to have no end); then, the Ottomans, and finally the British.

Even so, whatever regime ruled over it in modern times, from Mossadegh, the late Shah, to the current Ayatollah theocracy, that drive has remained as a primary undercurrent of its policies in the region. Thus its nuclear efforts may simply be its perception of these as the best means to achieve that former ancient imperial dominance.

Of course, none of all that helps calm the international community’s anxieties and fears about Iran’s intentions, if it achieves nuclear capability. Which is why there’s a growing urge towards military action to prevent it….rather than waiting to see if its theocrats might be devoid of any rationality and are truly insane enough to try to use that as their means to achieve those aspirations.

Frankly, Iran isn’t being more different about that than the rest of the members of the nuclear club, so the question that needs to be asked: How is Iran flakier than either North Korea or Pakistan, or even India?

Actually, there’s no real need for either bombs or boots on the ground to prevent it. Economic and technological countermeasures might do the job just as well. In fact, economic warfare squeezing is already in play, and having an effect. As to technological counter measures, some of these have already been done, perhaps to test the effectiveness of “hacking” assaults on its nuclear activities. Drone technologies, combined with EMP systems are also viable possibilities.

As to the impacts of such instabilities on the world’s oil supplies, it should be noted that there are growing developments in new sources for its primary customers. Among these is the USA itself, which is rapidly becoming a net exporter of petroleum products again.

Lastly, there’s an even more important question that should be asked: Even if the war-hawks were able to achieve the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime….would what might replace them….be any less of a trouble making nuisance or potential threat? Iran…would still be Iran…with the same daydreams of achieving its former ancient imperial place in the world.

CENTURION