Vol. VI – Issue No. 23 – Mar 2011

OH, LIBYA, OH LIBYA!
(will you let Gaddafi prevail over your?)

The problem with murderous nut-case dictators like Gaddafi is when they don’t realize they may be winning the fights….but they’re losing the war, against those who are attempting to free themselves from them.

Yes, he has the stronger firepower for now, mostly old Russian T-34 tanks, and Migs, along with a corps of hired African mercenaries, but these may not  be enough or last long, especially the mercenaries, if they begin to face a determined resistance which refuses to give up.

Tanks and airpower may be fine for the wide open spaces of the Libyan deserts, but in any urban situation neither are worth much. Tanks become sitting ducks in urban environments, vulnerable to Molotov cocktails, and I.E.Ds blasting their tracks. Airpower, can do very little, other than smashing buildings, so it too isn’t much use in such situations. And beyond the physical problems involved, prolonged urban operations against a civilian population simply creates stronger hatred for the attackers, thus fiercer resistance.  As for mercenary troops, once they face that kind of resistance, they may quickly tire of the game, regardless of pay or the potential side benefits of plunder and rapine.

The very fact that Gaddafi is resorting to such measures simply show that such winning will ultimately lose him the war. And nothing proves this more than the recent declaration by his erstwhile Arab “brothers” of the Arab League, clamoring for the UN to impose no-fly sanctions on him.

Frankly, a few of our drone resources might be more effective at taking him and his immediate cronies out…with hardly a ripple, sweat, or collateral damage, thus saving everyone a lot of time and grief. However, I suppose the reason for our hesitancy to do so is the memory of those cruise missile fiascos against one of his “aspirin” factories, and shredding one of his fancy tents. Still, considering how effectively our drones have been applied in the mountainous terrains of Pakistan and Afghanistan, Tripoli and its surrounding areas should hardly be a problem. Besides, how difficult can it be to accurately zero in on a golf cart surrounded by a living shield of protecting goons in business suits?

But the real answer is not technology and no-fly cover. It lies completely with the Libyan people, and how quickly they can organize their own legitimacy for being in revolt against his regime.

To do that they must make some kind of collective declaration to let the entire world know why they are in revolt, and what they plan to put in place of his regime. More importantly such a declaration should aim at all the tribal elders and chieftains of their society, calling on these to join them in forming a new governing structure for their country. One which will provide them all with equal representation, and a voice in what that structure might be for the future of their country. With such a declaration the people of Libya then have a good chance to steadily peel away what tribal support Gaddafi may have left (even from his own tribe). Once that happens he and his kleptocratic crew will be out of business.

The youth of Libya, as with so many others elsewhere, sparked this revolution. Now, it’s time for their elders to step up and bring it to a righteous conclusion so that Gaddafi cannot prevail against them.

Inshallah…

CENTURION